Advertising expenditure in the United Kingdom is set to rise by 4.8% this year (at constant prices after adjusting for inflation), reports the nation's Advertising Association in its quarterly Advertising Forecast.

The report, published this week, was researched and compiled by the World Advertising Research Center. Media surveyed include national and regional newspapers, consumer and business magazines, television, radio, outdoor and -- for the first time in the forecast -- cinema, internet and direct mail.

The recovery that began in the fourth quarter of 2003 continued into the first quarter of 2004, with total advertising expenditure rising 3.5% year-on-year at constant prices. According to the report, it is likely total adspend will continue to accelerate to achieve 4.8% growth for the year as a whole.

Internet advertising is expected to be the single fastest growing medium overall, increasing by over 50% when compared with 2003.

Of the other media, outdoor and radio are forecast to show the greatest percentage increases, with expenditures rising by 8.7% and 7.8% respectively. All media sectors are expected to record real growth this year with the exception of cinema, which is forecast to show a small decline of 1.4%.

Annual % change (at constant prices1)

National newspapers2 3.7
Regional newspapers 5.9
Consumer magazines3 4.6
Business magazines 2.6
Total press 4.6
- of which display 3.9
- of which classified 5.4
Television 4.4
Radio 7.8
Outdoor 8.7
Cinema -1.4
Internet 53.0
Direct Mail 4.1
Total4 4.8

(1) Constant price figures are inflation-adjusted (based on year 2000) using the consumer price index.
(2) Includes supplements.
(3) Excludes supplements.
(4) Excludes cinema, directory and internet advertising.

The Advertising Forecast is available on annual subscription (£565 for AA members; £895 non-members) from the WARC bookshop.

Data sourced from: Advertising Association; additional content by WARC staff