Ad forecasting guru Robert Coen – senior vp of Universal McCann in New York – has revised down his global ad growth predictions.

In the US, Coen now expects adspend to increase 4.6% in 2003 to $247.7 billion (€210.7bn; £147.3bn), slower than the 5% growth he predicted in December. Coen argued that the slow stock market and the war in Iraq had prevented an earlier recovery.

However, he still expects a US rebound in the second half. “There is lot more good news than bad news,” he commented, citing the return to pre-recession budget levels by major advertisers and the resumption of adspend by internet firms. National media outlets, he added, are likely to benefit more than local ones.

Outside the US, Coen revised his forecast for 2003 ad revenues to $222.1bn, an increase of 4%. Especially rapid growth is expected in China, India, Indonesia, Mexico, the Philippines and South Korea; Europe may see only a small recovery, while the German ad market could decline.

That leaves global adspend of $469.8bn, up 4.3%. Coen’s initial forecasts for 2004 are for 5.6% growth to $495.9bn.

Data sourced from: multiple sources; additional content by WARC staff