The trade organization's annual Super Bowl Spending Survey, which asked 7,591 consumers about their Super Bowl plans, found that viewership will be similar to last year – 188.5m compared to 188.9m – but average spending per person will drop to $75 from $82.
Among those planning to watch the game (76% of those surveyed), food and drink are the primary purchase considerations, with eight in ten buying these items.
Eleven per cent indicated they would buy team apparel or accessories, and 8% were in the market for a new television to watch the game at home.
And home, someone's home, is where most people will be. Some 45m people will host a Super Bowl party, the NRF said, while 27% of respondents planned on attending a party. More than 12m prefer to watch the game at a bar or restaurant, it added.
The commercials have become a significant part of the evening. For 43% of viewers, the game itself is the most important thing, but 24% cited the commercials; 15% simply want to hang out with friends, and 12% said the half-time show is the highlight.
Brands are spending big for the airtime – $5m for 30 seconds – that enables them to reach such a huge audience, but the effectiveness may be limited.
Only 10% of those surveyed said the commercials influence them to purchase products. Brand awareness is more likely to be the primary aim of many advertisers, but just 18% of respondents thought Super Bowl ads achieved this. The majority (78%) watch the commercials simply for entertainment.
A minority take a different view: 16% said advertisers should save their money and pass the savings along to the consumers, and 10% complained that the commercials make the game last too long.
Data sourced from NRF; additional content by Warc staff