Writing in the current issue of Admap, Alice K. Sylvester and Jim Spaeth, partners in media metrics consultancy Sequent Partners, noted five areas where they saw opportunities for modeling to move forward.
Ever more complex econometric models have enhanced marketers' view of the natural flow of consumers' multi-platform behaviour, they said, but, ultimately, multi-touch attribution promised an understanding of marketing and creative efficiency alongside that behaviour.
All this relies on data, however, and the authors suggested there are "immense opportunities for improved data inputs to the models".
In particular, they want to see highly granular data from all touchpoints. "Increasing the granularity and variability of media inputs can increase the estimate of a medium's RoI by as much as 27%," they reported.
They also highlighted the "shocking oversight" when it comes to measuring creativity, with some observers claiming that 70% of the sales effectiveness of advertising can be attributed to the creative message.
Acknowledging that this is a difficult area, they argued that more direct integration of copy tests into marketing mix models would move the industry on from determining which ads worked to understanding why they worked.
Another failing of current models is that they often reduce marketing decisions to shuffling money around the brand's tried and true tactics, when they could instead be guiding marketers to not simply allocate funds but to recognise new opportunities.
It's about effectiveness rather than efficiency. "We need marketing models that help marketers and media planners make the important decisions they face every day," they said, "models that help improve the RoIs of the past, not force marketers to live with them."
There is also more to be done in the field of understanding the sources of brand value and how to maximise them. The simplistic equation that says the long-term effects of advertising are twice the short-term needs to be overhauled.
At its simplest, Sylvester and Spaeth see the new generation of marketing models guiding marketers to improve their RoIs with consumer-based insights to inspire their creativity.
But, they add, "there is a lot of work to be done before the pieces are assembled for Big Data to replace scanner data".
Data sourced from Warc