LONDON/WASHINGTON: Global adspend is predicted to rise by 4.8% this year, due in part to a strong contribution from the US, Warc's latest International Ad Forecast has indicated.
The Forecast, which calculates ad expenditure trends in PPP terms across 12 global markets, suggested that global growth will quicken slightly in 2013, rising to +5.2%. Warc subscribers can browse the full data set.
But Suzy Young, Warc's data editor, warned that these forecasts assumed no further major external economic shocks, such as a eurozone breakup, for 2012. Such an event would result in advertisers reining in or even cutting back on their budgets.
"The outlook for advertising spend is fairly positive, considering the economic turmoil in the eurozone and fears that the BRIC economies are stalling," Young added. "Quadrennial factors are currently providing the lift in 2012 but should the global economy experience another shock, advertising spend may plummet."
The US, still the world's largest ad market at around 41% of the 12-nation total, is earmarked for +4.1% growth for 2012, meaning that it will make the single largest contribution to the global increase.
Within this total, US internet adspend is to increase by +11.4%, while TV will rise +6%.
Emerging markets are expected to grow fastest, with Chinese adspend to rise by +15.5% from 2011 this year, making it the fastest-growing market measured by the Forecast. Russia came in second place on this metric, and is forecast to rise +14% for the year.
Europe's economies are expected to record significantly slower growth. France and Germany are both forecast to record near-zero growth this year, up +0.6% and +0.5% respectively, while Italy will be the only market measured to suffer a net contraction in adspend for 2012 in PPP terms, falling -3.5%.
Within individual media channels, internet is expected to be 2012's fastest grower, rising +14.5% from 2011 across the 12 markets. TV and outdoor, both major beneficiaries from the Olympics and the US election, were next on +5% and +4.7% respectively.
But print media are expected to suffer in 2012, with magazines registering a net decline of -2%, and newspapers down -3% on last year.
Data sourced from Warc