This Year Next Year UK forecast

Adam Smith
GroupM

GroupM's Adam Smith summarises the latest forecasts for 2014 ad expenditure in the UK and the implications for media categories

In the summer edition of GroupM's This Year, Next Year UK report, we expected advertising to creep ahead of GDP in 2013 but stopped short of calling this 'recovery'. Advertisers seem to have taken this as their cue to turn the taps on. Our former forecast of 3.3% ad growth in 2013 now stands at 7.0%; and our outlook for 2014 rises from 3.5% to 6.0%. This rising tide is lifting all the media boats.

If these forecasts prove any more reliable than the last ones – and there's not much of 2013 left for us to guess – UK advertising will grow 4% in real terms this year, which is double the rate of the economy. This would push advertising's share of GDP back up to 0.9% in 2014, where it was in 'Year Lehman', 2008. It would also leave the UK by far the fastest-growing ad market in the industrialised world. For comparison, total EU advertising is still falling (with hopes of turning positive next year).