The Future of Forecasting is Here: Did Simulated Test Markets Evolve As Anticipated ... and What Are the New Expectations?

Lee Markowitz

At the 2002 ESOMAR Congress, a paper entitled The Future of Simulated Test Markets (by Joseph Willke, ACNielsen BASES) made predictions about what life would be like in 2010 and the implications for STM models.

The Future of Forecasting is Here: Did Simulated Test Markets Evolve As Anticipated … and What Are the New Expectations?

Lee Markowitz

INTRODUCTION

This paper analyzes predictions made in a 2002 ESOMAR paper about how Simulated Test Market (STM) models in the consumer package goods (CPG) sector need to change in order to remain relevant for 2010 (Willke, 2002). The 2002 paper focused on the need for STM models to adapt to one-to-one marketing. Now 2010 is here. Have STM models adapted? In this paper, the accuracy of the 2002 predictions is assessed and new predictions for 2015 are made....

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