The past matters: eliminating the pro-Labour bias in British opinion polls

John Curtice and Nick Sparrow

Opinion polls in Britain display a persistent tendency to overestimate Labour’s share of the vote in the ballot box.

The past matters: eliminating the pro-Labour bias in British opinion polls

John Curtice

Strathclyde University

Nick Sparrow

ICM Research

Introduction

The 1992 election was disastrous for Britain’s polling industry (Jowell et al. 1993). On average, the final set of polls put Labour one point ahead of the Conservatives, suggesting the outcome would be a ‘hung’ parliament in which no one party enjoyed an overall majority (Market Research Society 1994). In the event the Conservatives were as much as eight points ahead and secured an overall majority.

Although no subsequent election has proved so embarrassing for the industry, ...

WARC subscribers can sign in to keep reading

Not a subscriber?

Schedule your live demo with our team today

WARC helps you to plan, create and deliver more effective marketing

  • Prove your case and back-up your idea

  • Get expert guidance on strategic challenges

  • Tackle current and emerging marketing themes

We’re long-term subscribers to WARC and it’s a tool we use extensively. We use it to source case studies and best practice for the purposes of internal training, as well as for putting persuasive cases to clients. In compiling a recent case for long-term, sustained investment in brand, we were able to support key marketing principles with numerous case studies sourced from WARC. It helped bring what could have been a relatively dry deck to life with recognisable brand successes from across a broad number of categories. It’s incredibly efficient to have such a wealth of insight in one place.

Insights Team
Bray Leino

You’re in good company

We work with 80% of Forbes' most valuable brands* and 80% of the world's top top-of-the-class agencies.

* Top 10 brands