Election forecasting: Development of the Constant Sum Scale to be used in telephone surveys

The Constant Sum Scale has been successfully tested to forecast election results in face-to-face surveys.

Election forecasting: Development of the Constant Sum Scale to be used in telephone surveys

Mathew Parackal, Phil Harris and Chris Rudd

University of Otago

Introduction

Probability-based scales have been used successfully to estimate future behaviour in marketing. The probabilistic nature of these scales allows the means produced to be interpreted in proportionate terms. At least three forms of probability scale – Juster Scale, Verbal Probability Scale and Constant Sum Scale – are used in the marketing literature. The Juster Scale, originally implemented in face-to-face surveys, was developed to estimate the...

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