When Market Estimation Goes Astray - Purchase intent over-estimation for technology goods

Fabian Echegaray, Tania Hojo and Adriana Cordeiro

This paper examines the magnitude and key drivers behind purchase intent or adoption over-estimation across three different technology product categories.

When Market Estimation Goes Astray

Purchase Intent Over-Estimation for Technology Goods

Fabián EchegarayMarket Analysis, Brazil

Tânia HojoMarket Analysis, Brazil

Adriana CordeiroMarket Analysis, Brazil

Forecasting is as much a need as a vice for market researchers, consultants and clients. However, like electoral polls, market estimations are rapidly subjected to validation and reliability tests by actual data and, quite often, no margin of error excuses or spiral of silence theorisations will persuasively amend any significant discrepancy between what was predicted and actual outcomes ultimately attained. This has been the case in Brazil for a number of technological innovations entering...

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