Learning From Failures in Predicting New Design Acceptance
Wulf SchlundISM Research Alliance, Germany
INVESTIGATING FAILURES OF JUDGEMENTAL FORECASTING
In the market under consideration, research is not as old as in other markets. As of now, a number of companies have not given up the practice of judgmental forecasting of the market performance of new designs. Therefore, with the companies involved, we investigated the failures of judgmental forecasting on two levels: compared with consumer tests; and subsequently with the real market performance. The forecast by judgement was done by internal company experts and the investigation showed the extent of failure....