Data Combo: Combining open data and econometric modelling to understand voter’s motivations

Antoine Moreau and Laurent Flores

This paper explores the confusion of causation with correlation, illustrated by an analysis of the factors behind the rise of electoral support for the extreme-right-wing National Front party in France.

Data Combo: Combining open data and econometric modelling to understand voter's motivations

Antoine Moreau and Laurent Flores

Introduction

Causality is the area of statistics that is most commonly misused and misinterpreted, by non-specialists. Media sources, politicians and lobby groups often leap upon a perceived correlation, and use it to 'prove' their own beliefs. They fail to understand that, just because results show a correlation, there is no proof of an underlying causality. This situation happens to be specifically true during election periods where many debates take place and where a simple correlation may be soon wrongly interpreted as a causation...

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