Illicit trade: winners and losers

This paper talks about the impact of illicit trade, drawing attention to the growing problem by analysing its core drivers and describing the main winners and losers of the shadow economy.

Illicit trade: winners and losers

Lourdes Chavarria

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Introduction

Despite the efforts of global organisations, governments and companies in controlling illicit trade, the phenomenon continues to be a latent threat for the global economy. According to the World Economic Forum, the global value of illicit trade and transnational activities is estimated at between 8% and 15% of global GDP, potentially reaching as high as US$12 trillion in 2014. To put this into context, this is approximately the size of China's total economic output in that same year.

Each year, an increasing number...

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