Household vehicle consumption forecasts in the United States, 2000 to 2005
National University of Singapore
Households and Consumption Forecasting Inc.
American automakers have been experiencing a continuous downturn in production. The output of passenger cars of the United States has decreased steadily from 5.6 million in 1999 to 2.2 million in 2009, a drop of approximately 60% (OICA website). Moreover, in spite of a fast increase in household vehicle ownership in the 1980s, the trend has significantly slowed in the most recent decades (Hu & Reuscher 2004; Davis & Diegel 2009): the annual growth rate of the average number of vehicles per household was 2.53% in the period 1970–1980, but decreased to 0.48% in the period 1990–2000. Within such a market environment, knowledge of vehicle consumption dynamics should be highly valued for today’s manufacturers, dealers and other stakeholders in this sector. Projections of household-based vehicle consumption are thus of particular importance due to its sheer size in the market; indeed, it has already received extensive attention in market research (e.g. Golob et al. 1997; Dargay & Gately 1999; Bhat & Sen 2005).