Household vehicle consumption forecasts in the United States, 2000 to 2005

Forecasts of household vehicle consumption are important for automobile market analyses. This paper employs the ProFamy extended cohort-component new method to project household vehicle consumption from 2000 to 2025 across four regions of the United States (the Northeast, Midwest, South and West).

Household vehicle consumption forecasts in the United States, 2000 to 2005

Qiushi Feng

National University of Singapore

Zhenglian Wang

Households and Consumption Forecasting Inc.

Danan Gu and Yi Zeng

Duke University

Introduction

American automakers have been experiencing a continuous downturn in production. The output of passenger cars of the United States has decreased steadily from 5.6 million in 1999 to 2.2 million in 2009, a drop of approximately 60% (OICA website). Moreover, in spite of a fast increase in household vehicle ownership in the 1980s, the trend has significantly slowed in the most recent decades (Hu & Reuscher...

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