Predicting Probability of New Product Success With Structured Executive Judgement

S. Ramachander
ACME (Academy for Management Excellence), India


It is interesting that the basic approach to new product testing and re search has remained fairly standard and universal over the years; to take every element in the proposed marketing mix(es) - from product concept to point of purchase activity and test it in sequence or in combination, with reference points such as competitor brands on one side, and consumer perceptions and preferences on the other. What has changed is chiefly the technology and the mechanics of measurement, with more and more use of multi-variate, computerised and simulation-oriented tools. Some of the truly unusual and state of the art tools incorporate consumer participation in the specification of the product benefits and sophistication in an interactive computer aided process (such as those being currently worked on by Prof. Gerry Zaltman of Harvard Business School).