COI/Department of Health

Fuel Data Strategies

THE TEAM

Jonathan Buck, Pau Torres.

WHAT IS WONDERFUL ABOUT THIS WORK?

We developed a piece of analytics for the Department of Health on hitting Public Service Agreement targets for smoking prevalence. Our framework helped decrease CPR from £149 to £101. This equals 23,725 incremental responses and 1,074 successful quits over a year, with a conservative estimate cost saving of around of £7.7 million: an ROI of 10.2:1.

OBJECTIVES

To develop a model to predict the impact of policy and social trends on smoking prevalence in England. Estimate task for DH communications for 2008–10 in order to hit PSA targets by 2010.

STRATEGY AND TARGETING

PSA targets for 2010 are a smoking prevalence of 21% among the general adult population and one of 26% among routine and manual workers. We didn't know whether the targets would be achieved without a communications campaign and, if not, how much spend was required to hit them. We created an analytical framework combining information from multiple sources to easily visualise the main factors and their evolution. Where information wasn't available, we generated assumptions. Our analysis showed that smoking prevalence would evolve very differently for the two audiences if marketing budget was decreased. The decreasing background trend in the general adult population was so strong that targets would be achieved without any marketing. But among routine and manual workers, marketing spend would have to be increased.