Point of View: Media malleability
New forecasts for ad spend in 2011 show overall growth is still relatively tepid compared with pre-recession levels – between 4.6% and 5.8%. But the overall numbers mask continuing shifts that are reshaping the underlying economics of advertising and media.
While much of the expansion continues to come from traditional media, it is mainly taking place in emerging and rapidly expanding markets. The real stimulus for the mature media markets continues to be digital media. One of the forecasters, GroupM's Adam Smith, estimates that digital media is poised to overtake newspapers as the world's second largest ad medium, behind TV: "Internet spending may already have eclipsed newspapers if one allows that measured internet ad investment does not include substantial advertiser investment in content creation, search-engine optimisation and analysis." Even so, ad spend will contribute 37% of global ad growth in 201 I, putting it on pace to overtake newspapers at some point in 2012.