A Nation of Liars? Opinion Polls and the 1992 Election

Ivor Crewe

A discussion of the possible reasons which have been advanced for the poor prediction by the opinion polls of the result of the 1992 election.
  

A Nation of Liars? Opinion Polls and the 1992 Election

Ivor CreweDepartment of Government University of Essex

In the 1945 election, the only polling organisation was Gallup.  It published two polls, the second showing a Labour lead of 6%, in the News Chronicle.  But the editor was sceptical: everybody knew that Churchill's stature made the Conservatives unbeatable.  But everybody was wrong and the poll, while underestimating Labour's true lead, was right.

Since then the number of polls, polling organisations and outlets for polls has grown enormously (see Table 1). In 1992 the intensity of polling...

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