Learning From Failures in Predicting New Design Acceptance

Wulf Schlund
ISM Research Alliance, Germany


INVESTIGATING FAILURES OF JUDGEMENTAL FORECASTING

In the market under consideration, research is not as old as in other markets. As of now, a number of companies have not given up the practice of judgmental forecasting of the market performance of new designs. Therefore, with the companies involved, we investigated the failures of judgmental forecasting on two levels: compared with consumer tests; and subsequently with the real market performance. The forecast by judgement was done by internal company experts and the investigation showed the extent of failure.

Comparison to Consumer Tests

The first level of investigation is the comparison of judgmental forecasting with consumer tests. Here I would like to introduce three cases.

Case No. 1: Bathroom tiles