Product Launch Decision Testing And Demand Forecasting Using Virtual Store Shelves

Ayumi Higaki
Marketing Intelligence Division, Intage Inc., Japan


The market environment for new products has become increasingly inhospitable since the 1990s. Data from SCI, the leading consumer panel survey in Japan, reveal the harsh market conditions: 745 new brands in 38 processed food categories launched in 1995 and 1996 (excluding instances of simple line extension). One percent of these new products had captured market share of 5% or higher, and 3% had captured share of 3% or higher one year after launch. The results also revealed that many of the new products that became established in the market (as indicated by share of 3% or higher a year after launch) had attained their sales peak immediately after launch (Higaki, 1998).1)