LONDON: A downbeat assessment of US advertising prospects for the remainder of 2007 is a key element in the latest quarterly forecast of world advertising expenditure from ZenithOptimedia.
In December ZO, the global media-buying arm of Publicis Groupe, foresaw 4.1% expenditure growth stateside. In April it revised this downward to 3.4%, and in its latest bout of crystal-ballgazing it expects US growth to manage no more than 3.3% at constant currencies.
Arguably the most significant development in 2007 will be the rise and rise of China which, according to ZO, will become the fifth-largest ad market in the world this year, overtaking Italy.
In 2008, predicts the agency, China's adspend will grow by 25% - an increase of $3.7 billion in dollar terms - and more than any other market in the world except the US.
The latter is predicted to grow by only twice as much, despite the fact that its ad economy is over ten times China's size.
Great Britain, the world number four ad economy, is now feeling the hot breath of the People's Paradise on its neck, although at just two-thirds the size of the former, it will be another year or so before China accelerates past the UK.
Key global predictions are . . .
- The Olympic Games will attract $3 billion in additional ad expenditure globally in 2008, nearly $1 billion of it within China
- The Presidential election in the US and the Euro 2008 football tournament will contribute another $3 billion between them
- Slight downwards revision in adspend forecasts for the Americas, but all other regions are up
- Signs of recovery in Germany and the UK
- The internet will grow six times faster than traditional media between 2006 and 2009 and increase its share of the overall ad market from 6.1% to 9.4%
Zenith estimates worldwide advertising expenditure will grow by 5.5% this year and by 6.4% in 2008. It expects Western Europe to outperform North America between 2007-2009, after nine years of underperformance - pointing specifically to signs of recovery in Germany and the UK.
Data sourced from multiple origins; additional content by WARC staff