Warc lowers adspend forecast

14 November 2011

LONDON: Warc has revised down predicted adspend growth in three-quarters of the markets covered by its latest International Ad Forecast, as economic concerns weigh on marketers' budgets.

According to the Forecast, the full version of which can be downloaded by Warc subscribers, only Russia (+27%), India (+13%) and China (+12%) are predicted to record double-digit adspend growth at current prices this year. Italy (-5%) and Japan (-3%) are likely to have adspend declines.

All 12 markets are forecast to experience adspend growth in 2012, with rates ranging from +0.8% for Italy to +21.5% for Russia at current prices, though the predictions operate under the assumption that the Eurozone will avoid further defaults over the months to come.

Moreover, of the 12 global markets covered by the Forecast, only Russia, Canada and Japan escaped downward revisions from the previous International Ad Forecast released in July 2011.

Suzy Young, data editor at Warc, said: "The crisis in the eurozone is continuing to create havoc for the world's financial markets, and it shows no sign of abating any time soon.

"As a result advertisers have become more and more cautious, even in markets outside Western Europe."

The International Ad Forecast also contains predictions for GDP growth.

For 2012, economic expectations were downgraded for 11 of the 12 nations, with only Japan left unchanged. China was forecast to record the highest growth, with GDP expanding by 9.2% in 2011 and by a further 8.5% in 2012.

Data sourced from Warc; additional content by Warc staff