US Adspend Forecast to Slip

03 October 2007

NEW YORK: A study by Publicis Groupe's ZenithOptimedia is predicting a slowdown in the US advertising market during the rest of this year as the sub-prime mortgage fiasco and consequent credit squeeze take their toll.

Growth for 2007 is now forecast at 2.5%, down from the previous 3.3% estimate.

But the picture is brighter elsewhere. Adspend growth in Central and Eastern Europe this year will be 18.3%, according to Zenith - up from a previous prediction of 16.9%. Eight of the ten fastest-growing markets in the world are in this region, including the current race leader, Serbia.

The media buyer and planner says it is likely the global television industry will benefit from next year's Beijing Olympics, lifting its worldwide ad share to 38.2%.

Although the medium is losing ground in North America and western Europe, "the faster growth of ad markets in the rest of the world is counteracting this trend", says the Zenith report.

Global online adspend growth is likely to reach 29.9% this year. The study also projects 85% growth between 2006 and 2009 and predicts online will account for 9.5% of all adspend in 2009.

  • Meantime, the UK ad industry has been saved from a slump by the strength of its online marketing, says the Internet Advertising Bureau.

    Figures from the IAB show British web adspend reached £1.33 billion ($2.6bn; €1.8bn) in the first half of the year, a rise of 41.3% on the same period in 2006, and its share of UK adspend now stands at just under 15%.

    The report says that without the contribution of digital advertising, the industry as a whole would have seen spend fall by £1.9bn in the first half. Instead, it grew 3.1% to £9.1bn.

    Avers IAB ceo Guy Phillipson: "Online advertising is still bringing home the bacon. The UK advertising economy would be in a much sorrier state without it."

    Data sourced from Brand Republic (UK) and Wall Street Journal Online; additional content by WARC staff