US, European Adspend Growth Will Sag in 2008, Predicts ZenithOptimedia

01 July 2008

LONDON: As the western ad industry becomes increasingly sluggish, a surge in developing markets is powering healthy world adspend growth, reports  the latest quarterly forecast from ZenithOptimedia.

In the globe's largest ad market, the USA, ZO predicts that expenditure will increase 3.4% in 2008 – down from its March estimate of 3.7%.

Zenith attributes its downgrade to the metastasis of budget slashing from the automotive, financial and housing sectors – all  adspend casualties over the past several quarters.

"Others such as cosmetics are now also seeing a slowdown," reports Bruce Goerlich, ZO's head of US research. But there's no panic, he insists: "It's like a slow-leaking balloon. We are not seeing dramatic cuts; marketers are just being cautious." 

Much the same situation pertains in Western Europe where spending forecasts have been trimmed from 3.9% to 3.7%. 

Elsewhere in the world, however, adland is resisting the pressures of stagflation:

  • Overall global adspend growth of 6.6% is predicted for 2008, marginally up from the 6.5% growth estimated in the media network's March forecast.
  • The global total is buoyed by forecasts for the rest of the world, up from 11.1% to 11.8%.
  • Developing markets are expected to contribute 62% of adspend growth between 2007-2010, and increase their share of the global ad market from 27% to 33%.
  • Meantime, economic uncertainty in developed markets is accelerating the shift of budgets to accountable internet advertising.
ZO now forecasts internet advertising will leap the 10% market share barrier this year and account for 13.6% of world adspend by 2010.

Data sourced from multiple origins; additional content by WARC staff