UK Adspend Could Grow 52% by 2020

12 February 2009

LONDON: Advertising expenditure in the UK could rise by 52% over the ten years to 2020, with a compound annual growth rate of 4%, according to the Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast, produced by WARC on behalf of the Advertising Association.

In terms of media, online is predicted to definitively overtake TV in terms of total ad revenues by 2010, with adspend reaching £3.3bn that year versus TV's £3.0bn, and to leapfrog total press spending by 2013.

Indeed, by 2020, the internet could account for 44% share of all adspend – greater than the combined total of press and television, at 40%.

However, the more pessimistic outlook presented by the report – which provides a "high option" and a "low option" for UK adspend – reduces the predicted adspend increase from 2010 to 2020 to 28%, with a compound annual growth rate of 2.5%.

Display advertising is predicted to expand by 29% in real terms over this period under the high option, a figure that falls to 8% if the lower scenario plays out.

Classified adspend will grow by either 95% or 64%, with online search driving the improvement, and increasing its share of classified expenditure to 64% in 2020 compared with around a third this year.

Among the advertiser categories, spending uplifts by the consumables, durables and financial sectors could peak between 29% and 39%, though the lower option sees consumables outlay rising by 11% financial by 16%, and durables by just 15%.

Retail is the category which appears to face the most austere future, with adspend declining by 4% on the higher option and 13% on the lower option.

For more information on the Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast, click here.

Data sourced from the Long Term Advertising Expenditure Forecast