Prospects worsen for global ad market

01 August 2011

LONDON/WASHINGTON: Warc has downgraded its expectations for adspend growth in 2011, as debt disputes on both sides of the Atlantic put the global economic recovery at risk.

According to the latest International Advertising Forecast, which measures adspend in 12 major global markets, full-year growth will reach 3.2% at current prices.

The previous Forecast, published in March 2011, predicted growth of 4.6% for the year as a whole.

Globally, marketers are expected to rein in their budgets for the remainder of 2011, partly due to uncertainty relating to political disagreements over how best to tackle public deficits in the Eurozone nations and the US.

The inflationary impact of high commodity prices has also affected sentiment.

Indeed, at constant 2005 prices, this year's adspend total is predicted to fall by 0.1% from 2010, according to the latest Forecast.

Suzy Young, Warc's data editor, said: "Global economic conditions remain unsettled and this is making marketers cautious, particularly in Western Europe, Japan and the US."

"As a consequence, marketing budgets for 2011 are likely to be smaller than initially hoped."

Emerging markets will continue to grow faster than their Western counterparts in 2011, with Russia, India and China expected to register the highest annual adspend expansions of 19.5%, 15.5% and 12.2% respectively, at current prices.

Even at constant prices, these growth rates stand at 9.6%, 6.9% and 6.5% in turn.

Japan is set to perform worst of the 12 featured markets, with adspend falling by 3.5% at current prices in 2011, with consumers and businesses still affected by the tsunami and nuclear crisis.

Debt-laden Italy, hit by a bond market scare prior to last week's Eurozone bailout, will be the other country witnessing a contraction, as adspend slides by 3% on an annual basis.

Globally, Warc predicts a recovery in adspend in 2012, with the annual growth rate reaching 5.7% at current prices.

To find out more about Warc's International Advertising Forecast, click here.

Data sourced from Warc