Prospects decline for global adspend

06 August 2012

LONDON/SINGAPORE: Prospects for the advertising industry are in decline, as just two of the 13 key global markets have avoided a downgrade in their growth estimates for 2012, Warc's latest Consensus Ad Forecast has revealed.

According to the Consensus Ad Forecast, the UK and Japan were the only nations where the trading outlook has improved since April. They are now pegged to witness expansions of 3.4% and 3.3% in turn during 2012, up from 2.4% and 2.8%.

By contrast, annual projections for Spain stand at –7.8% at present, a slide of 4.6 percentage points from April. Italy is also set to see a 5% contraction, having previously been expected to stay flat.

Even relatively robust economies were not immune to this trend. As such, India's growth rate was off by 2.7 percentage points to 8.7%, while the 12% lift outlined for Russia was down by 1.6 percentage points.

Among the other featured countries, the US is anticipated to post a 3.6% improvement in revenues this year, a modest change from the 4.1% increase envisioned in April.

The pace of acceleration, however, will remain most rapid in China, where ad sales are predicted to rise by 14.7%, a marginal drop of 0.1 percentage points since earlier this year.

At the worldwide level, advertising expenditure is due to increase by 4.4% in 2012 and 4.9% in 2013, softening from April's forecast of 5.3% and 5.4% respectively.

"The lack of resolution to the crisis in the eurozone is continuing to impact confidence. Global advertising spend is holding up thanks to the Olympics, the US presidential election and rapid growth in China," said Suzy Young, Warc's data editor.

By medium, internet expenditure is likely to rise by 14.8%, ahead of cinema on 4.7%, television on 4.6%, outdoor on 4% and radio on 2.4%.

Magazine ad sales are set to fall by 2.1%, a decline reaching 2.5% for newspapers. The web was also the sole channel where ad sales figures were upgraded.

Warc's Consensus Ad Forecast is based on a weighted average of adspend predictions at current prices from ad agencies, media monitoring companies, analysts, Warc's own team and industry bodies. For more information, click here.

Data sourced from Warc