Outlook improves for global advertising market

26 April 2010

LONDON/WASHINGTON: The outlook for the global advertising market has markedly improved, according to the latest Warc Consensus Forecast.

Based on a weighted average of recent predictions from ad agencies, media companies and industry bodies, worldwide adspend levels are expected to rise by 2.8% in 2010 and 3.8% in 2011.

The expectations for 2010 compare with predicted growth of 2.3% made in the last Consensus Forecast, and will follow on from the estimated 9.3% decline in expenditure recorded in 2009.

Conditions will be most favourable in the BRICs, with Chinese ad revenues rising by 12.2% in 2010 and 13.7% in 2011, totals that stood at 11.2% and 12.5% respectively in India.

Brazilian media budgets will also expand by 11.1% this year and 6.8% next year, figures that reached 5.4% and 10.3% in turn for Russia.

Elsewhere, the US is set to post a modest contraction of 0.3% in 2010, but will return to growth in 2011, when ad sales will climb by 1.9%.

Marketers in the UK, France, Australia and Canada are also due to boost their outlay in each of these years having trimmed their spending in 2009.

In contrast, brand owners in Germany, Italy and Spain will continue to cut back in 2010 before heightening their investment in 2011.

More specifically, TV adspend will experience further decreases in Germany, Japan and Spain, but will see totals climb in all of the other countries assessed.

Radio will post a double-digit improvement in India both this year and next year, during which time takings will fall in the UK, US, Italy Spain and Japan.

Newspaper advertising will experience drops of 10.6% in the US and 6.7% in Japan, offsetting the gains made by press titles in emerging markets.

Demand for magazine advertising is also likely to remain soft in nine nations in 2010 and seven nations in 2011, with market conditions proving particularly adverse in the US and Western Europe.

Outdoor will deliver the greatest uptick in China in 2010 and in India in 2011, while cinema advertising will enjoy successive increases in expenditure in the US in each of these years.

However, it is the internet which will display the strongest performance in this timeframe, recording growth across both years in all 13 featured countries.

This includes growth of more than 20% in China and India each year, with the US, Italy, France and Canada all registering expansions of at least 10% in 2010 and 2011.

Warc's Consensus Forecast contains predictions for the major media spending in each of the markets assessed. A free topline summary, in PowerPoint, is available here.

Warc subscribers can access a more detailed PowerPoint presentation containing predictions for the major media spending in each of the markets assessed here.

This aggregated data, which covers 13 countries, is provided on the condition of anonymity, preventing more information from being released.

Data sourced from Warc