Global adspend to rise 4%

29 November 2010

LONDON/WASHINGTON: Advertising expenditure levels are set to rise by more than 4% worldwide this year and next, according to Warc's latest Consensus Forecast.

Based on a weighted average of recent predictions from agencies, media companies and industry bodies, it is estimated that global spending will climb 4.4% in 2010 and 4.5% in 2011 at current prices.

This can be measured against the increases of 3.8% and 4.3% respectively predicted in the previous Forecast, which was released in August.

In keeping with the broader economic climate, emerging markets should drive overall growth.

Brazil was pegged to deliver 18.3% and 11.4% increases for 2010 and 2011 in turn, while projections for China stand at 14.5% and 13%.

Totals will also surpass 14% in India across both years, while Russian figures surge 15.1% this year and 16.3% next year.

By contrast, Japan is set to witness a modest 0.5% slide in 2010 and remain flat in 2011.

The ad recession might similarly endure for another year in Spain, down 1.2% in 2010 before the country sees a 2.2% uptick in 2011.

However, the US should record successive improvements nearing 3%, albeit aided by favourable comparisons, and Canada may yield 4% growth.

Germany will be closer to the 2% mark, with France posting a 3.4% leap in 2010 and a 2% increase in 2011.

The UK is anticipated to experience a 5% acceleration this year, moderating to 2.7% over the next 12 months.

By medium, TV revenues could climb 7.8% in 2010 and 5.2% in 2011, while the web registers an average growth rate of around 13%.

The web's pace of expansion is due to be slowest in the UK, one of the most developed online markets, and even here a rise of 8.2% is predicted for 2010, and 6.2% in 2011.

At the other end of the spectrum, brand owners in China are likely to boost their funding by approximately 30% a year, in an effort to engage the country's 400m netizens.

This channel is similarly well-placed in the remainder of the BRIC nations, as penetration and digital literacy increase.

Elsewhere, outdoor, cinema and radio should all enjoy hardening demand during the timeframe covered by the Consensus Forecast.

Conditions will continue to be challenging for newspapers and magazines, although the decline may decrease to roughly 1% in 2011 from 3% in 2010.

Warc's Consensus Forecast contains predictions for major media spending in 13 major markets. A free PowerPoint topline summary, in , is available here.

Warc subscribers can access a more detailed presentation containing predictions for media spending here.

Data sourced from Warc