Global adspend to fall 9.8%

01 October 2009

LONDON: Global advertising expenditure will decline by 9.8% this year, before returning to growth with an uptick of around 1% in 2010, according to a new forecast issued by Carat.

The Aegis-owned media network had predicted in March this year that worldwide adspend would fall by 5.8% in 2009, but it has now revised this estimate in line with the continuing economic malaise.

By region, the US will register a drop of 16.3% this year, and a further slide of 2.6% in 2010, while Canada will follow up a decrease of 2.7% with an improvement of 1.7% over the same period.

Western European budgets will tumble by 11% in 2009 – with the UK, Italy, Spain and the Nordic nations all experiencing double-digit reversals – and remain largely static over the next 12 months.

The climate in Central and Eastern Europe will be more adverse this year, with figures off by 18.4% – including a contraction of 21.9% in Russia – with totals then climbing by 3.3% annually in 2010.

Asia Pacific will also see a slowdown of 0.3% this year, but marketing outlay in the region will then grow by 4.6% in 2010.

Within this, China will enjoy successive improvements of 6.9% and 9.0%, while the Japanese market will shrink 5.5% in 2009, and be largely flat in 2010.

By medium, global television revenues will tumble 6.3% this year, before rising by 2.2% in 2010, with newspapers down 16.7% in the first of these periods, and 2.7% in the second.

Magazines revenues will plummet by 17.1% in 2009, with radio off by 12.4%, outdoor by 6.7%, and cinema by 3.2%, while online will see ad sales rise 1% this year, and 8.3% next.

TV's overall share of the market will rise from 42.6% in 2008 to 44.5% by 2010, with newspapers declining from 22.8% to 20.3% over this timeframe.

Magazines' proportion of the market will decline from 12.3% to 10.8% in this two-year spell, with radio shrinking slightly, and cinema and outdoor enjoying some growth.

The internet will also improve its share, from 8.9% in 2008 to 10.7% by 2010, thus closing the gap on magazines in the process.

Global advertising revenues declined by 6.8% in the first half of 2009, with Asia Pacific the only region to deliver meaningful growth in this period, Nielsen's latest Global AdView Pulse study has also found.

North America registered a contraction of 15.9% in H1, with TV off by 14.9%, radio by 7.7%, newspapers by 14%, and magazines by 22.9%.

In Europe, where ad budgets tumbled by 9.1% overall, marketers cut their outlay by 8% on television, 2.3% on radio, 8.3% in newspapers, and 17.6% in magazines.

By contrast, Asia Pacific posted an uptick of 2.2% in this timeframe, largely as a result of an improvement of 6.5% in the second quarter.

Data sourced from Nielsen; additional content by WARC staff