Global adspend to fall 5.8%, says Carat

26 March 2009

LONDON: Carat, the media agency network owned by Aegis, predicts global adspend will decrease by 5.8% this year and improve by 0.7% in 2010, with the US and Spain set to experience the most severe revenue declines in 2009.

At current prices, Carat says global adspend rose by 1.0% in 2008, having predicted it would expand by 4.9% as late as August last year, and the company has also scrapped its forecast of an increase in worldwide advertising expenditure of 4.8% in 2009.

It suggests that the US will see revenues decline by some 9.8% in this year, compared with the positive growth rate of 3.1% it estimated late last year, and endure a further slide of 2.7% in 2010.

Western Europe will also follow up a 2.9% fall in revenues in 2008 with a 6.6% dip this year, and growth of 0.1% next year.

In the UK, the ad market shrank by 5.5% in 2008, and it will experience  a contraction of 7.1% this year, and an uplift of 2.0% in 2010.

Germany will post declines of 2.2% and 1.1% this year and next, while France will see adspend tumble by 5% in 2009, and marginal growth in 2010.

Spainish revenues however, will decline by 16.5% this year, and by a further 4% in 2010, while Central and Eastern Europe will post successive annual reductions in spending of 8.2% and 1.0%.

Russia will also see a downturn of 8.2% in 2009 – compared with Carat's previous prediction of an expansion of 19.5% – and a 1.5% drop in 2010.

Asia Pacific revenues will also fall by 0.8% this year, before a 4.3% upturn in 2010.

The Chinese ad market grew by 18.9% last year, a figure that will slow to 4.6% in 2009, and then rise to a total of 7.2% next year.

Japan, on the other hand, will see a 5.5% decrease this year, and a negligible improvement in 2010, while Australia will see figures fall 1.9% in 2009, before registering growth of 1.8% the following year.

Data sourced from Carat; additional content by WARC staff