Global adspend to fall 4.4%, reports GroupM

02 April 2009

LONDON: Group M, the media agency umbrella of WPP Group, has forecast that global adspend will fall by 4.4% at current prices to $425 billion (£295bn; €321bn) this year, compared with a growth rate of 3% in 2008.

The company revised down its previous forecast of an annual worldwide decline of just 0.2%, with rising levels of unemployment one of the key reasons for its increasingly pessimistic appraisal.

Adspend in the US, which totalled $172bn last year, will diminish by 4.3% in 2009 to $155bn, and by a further 6.8% in 2010.

Revenues in Western Europe will slide by 6.7% to $100bn, with "emerging" Europe seeing a drop off of 15.8%, after expanding by 1.1% in 2008.

The UK will also see a contraction of 11.2% to $15.5bn, Spainish adspend will shrink by 13.8% to $7.9bn, Russia will be down 22.8% to $6.0bn, while German expenditure be largely stable at $22.6bn.

In the Asia Pacific region, Chinese growth will slow to 3.2%, taking the market to a value of $36.2bn, with India up 6.0% to $4.7bn.

Japan, by contrast, will post negative growth of 10.5% to $43.1bn, while Australia will be down 1.7%.

Total regional advertising revenues will fall 3.3% this year after an expansion of 6.5% last year and an uplift of 7.5% in 2007.

Brazil is predicted to be the fastest-growing market this year, with totals up by 10.5% to $10.3bn, while Latin America as a whole will register an increase in marketing spend of 8.2%, to a value of $20.2bn.

The Middle East and Africa will also see spending taper off by 0.6% in 2009, compared with expansion of 23.1% in 2007 and 20.9% last year.
New estimates from The Nielsen Company suggest that global adspend rose 1.5% in 2008, with TV revenues growing 5.2% on an annual basis, meaning television took 44% of all ad revenues.

Radio spending also rose by 0.4%, and the medium has an overall share of 6.5%, with newspapers and magazines down 9% in Europe, 4% in Asia Pacific, and 12.7% in North America.

Carat has also previously predicted that global adspend will fall by 5.8% next year.

Data sourced from GroupM/Brand Republic; additional content by WARC staff