Global adspend to fall 0.2%

05 March 2009

LONDON: Global adspend will fall by 0.2% this year at current prices compared with 2008, based on a weighted average of recent predictions from ad agencies, media companies and industry bodies provided in the latest WARC Consensus Forecast.

Predictions relating to advertising expenditure are currently in an almost continual process of revision as markets fluctuate and consumer confidence remains downbeat, meaning observers' estimates for this year vary considerably.

The consensus for US is that adspend will fall by 4%, although individual expectations vary from annual growth of 3% to a decline of up to 7%; within this, WARC is forecasting a decrease of 1%.

China's ad market is predicted to continue to grow by all observers, with the weighted average expansion standing at 12%, and specific estimates varying between uplifts of 8%, as forecast by market research firm CTR, and 20%, according to GroupM.

By contrast, the mean figure for Japan is a decline of 2%, with Dentsu, the country's largest agency holding group, also predicting its revenues will fall by 5% for the year ending in March.

The weighted average for the UK is a downturn of 1.7%, with WARC forecasting a decline of 3%, and more pessimistic observers pegging this figure at closer to 6%.

Elsewhere in Europe, France is likely to experience a marginal decline of 0.4%, and Germany a decrease in spending of 0.6%, with Spain down a more substantial 4%, and Italy set to see negligible growth for the year as a whole.

Data sourced from WARC Online