Global adspend set to return to growth

26 March 2010

LONDON Global adspend will climb by 2.9% in 2010 and a further 4% in 2011, according to Carat, the media agency.

The company, part of Aegis Group, reported that worldwide advertising expenditure tumbled by a total of 9% in 2009.

Carat has raised its estimates for 2010 compared with its previous forecast, made six months ago, which stated that revenues would rise by just 1% overall in 2010.

However, media budgets are still set to remain below the level recorded in 2006, showing the massive impact of the financial crisis on the communications and media industries.

Asia Pacific will register the most substantial expansion in activity going forward, generating an uptick of 6.8% in 2010 and 7.2% in 2011.

China will act as one of the main drivers of this trend, as brand owners boost their outlay in the world's most populous nation by more than 16% in each of these years.

Central and Eastern Europe experienced the most severe contraction in advertising expenditure in 2009, but will post the second-largest rate of growth this year, after Asia Pacific.

Brazil, Indonesia and Turkey are among the individual countries that Carat believes will deliver particularly impressive performances in this period.

By contrast, adspend in the US will be largely flat in 2010, although this suggests domestic trading conditions have stabilised to some degree, as Carat predicted a drop of 2.6% in its last report.

Western Europe should see a similar result to America, with Japan and Germany the only major markets where revenues will continue to diminish.

By medium, television ad sales are due to jump by 6% in 2010 and 2011, after shrinking by 4.8% in 2009.

"Television is expected to continue to receive the highest share of spend at 45.2%, an increase of 8 percentage points over the past decade," Carat argued.

Online will also grow by 10.1% this year and by 9.1% next year, having been the only channel to see an improvement in 2009.

Moreover, the web will leapfrog magazines in terms of its market share.

While conditions will remain difficult for newspapers, the pace of decline should slow to just 0.7% in 2010, offering some encouragement to media owners in the sector.

"This early view of future global adspend shows the potential for modest recovery through this year and into 2011 in what looks like being an increasingly benign environment," Jerry Buhlmann, the chief executive of Aegis Media, said.

"Whilst the year ahead remains challenging, these are encouraging signs."

Data sourced from Financial Times; additional content by Warc staff