Global adspend forecast revised down

26 August 2011

LONDON: Global adspend will rise by 5% this year according to figures from Carat, the media agency, which has revised down its previous estimate of 5.7% growth due to ongoing economic and political instability.

The company, part of Aegis, blamed economic headwinds in the US and much of Western Europe, the natural disasters that struck Japan and unrest in the Middle East on its decision to trim its previous projections, which were made in March.

According to the latest figures, total adspend is now estimated to reach $489bn.

At current prices, North America is set to witness a 3.2% improvement in ad budgets this year, off from 3.9% in March, while the likely pace of acceleration in Western Europe was downgraded from 3.5% to 2.3%% during the same period.

Elsewhere, Asia Pacific saw its growth rate cut from 8% to 7.1%, and expectations for Latin America remained unchanged, at a 13% jump year on year.

Central and Eastern Europe was the only geography to see a positive revision, as the forecast for the region increased from 9.5% to 10.1%.

"At the heart of the market, the long term trend of the two-speed advertising world and the rapid growth of digital are very much in force," the Carat study stated.

"The faster-growing regions of the world - particularly China, Russia and Latin America - will continue to eclipse performances from the developed economies."

By medium, TV ad sales are due to rise by 6% this year, with radio also up by 4%, cinema enjoying a 5.6% increase, out-of-home expanding 6.3%, and print essentially staying flat.

Digital, including the web and mobile, is anticipated to enjoy growth of 13.3%, although the outlook for all forms of media had diminished slightly compared with the forecast published in March.

Carat also stated adspend should climb by 6% in 2012, largely consistent with the 6.2% leap outlined in March, aided by the 2012 Olympics, UEFA European Football Championships and US Presidential election.

North America is pegged to see a 5.5% lift next year, with Western Europe up by 3%, Central and Eastern Europe by 11.6%, Asia Pacific by 6.9% and Latin America by 12.9%.

Digital will again lead the growth charts, improving by 14.4%, as this channel's global market share also expands by one percentage point annually, to 14%, almost exactly matching the decline for print media.

Data sourced from Carat; additional content by Warc staff