Expectations for global adspend decline

19 August 2011

LONDON/WASHINGTON: Global adspend is expected to rise by 4.4% in 2011 according to Warc's latest Consensus Forecast, representing a downward revision from the 5.1% increase predicted in April.

Industry forecasters believe fiscal uncertainty, especially in Europe and the US, has fostered an increasing reluctance among brand owners to boost their investment in marketing.

Suzy Young, Warc's data editor, said: "In just a few months the global economic outlook has worsened considerably and this is reflected in the latest Consensus Forecast. Ad markets in the US and Western Europe seem particularly vulnerable. But all will be affected if we go into a double dip recession."

Covering 13 major markets, the Consensus Forecast draws on a weighted average of adspend predictions from ad agencies, media monitoring firms, analysts, Warc's own team and other industry bodies.

Of the nations assessed, Italy saw the largest negative adjustment measured against the Forecast in April, and is now expected to witness a 0.7% decline in revenues, a drop of 3.7 percentage points.

Russia was one of the few countries to see an upgrade in the outlook over the same period, pegged to deliver a 19.8% improvement at current prices, a 3.6 percentage point lift compared with the last study.

Spending is anticipated to rise by 14.1% in China in 2011, a jump of 0.8 percentage points on the same metric, totals standing at 5.4% and 0.1 percentage points for Canada.

By medium, the web is expected to experience the most rapid increase in expenditure in 2011, up by 14.6%, with television enjoying a 5% improvement.

Looking further ahead, the Consensus Forecast projected global adspend will rise by 6.3% in 2012, slightly bettering the figure of 6.2% outlined in April.

Warc's own forecast is one of the more pessimistic, predicting 12 key international markets will grow by 3.2% year on year in 2011 and 5.7% in 2012, both at current prices.

For more information about Warc's Consensus Forecast, click here.

Data sourced from Warc