European adspend to fall 0.4% in 2010

23 December 2009

LONDON/WASHINGTON: European advertising expenditure is expected to recover next year, registering only a small decline of 0.4% at current prices, according to an upgraded forecast from Warc.

In September, Warc predicted that adspend in the region would fall by a total of 1.4% in 2010, after tumbling 10.8% this year.

The revised figures suggest this contraction will reach 11.9% in 2009, but revenues will only diminish by a further 0.4% over the following 12 months.

Expectations for five of the G7 markets – Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and US – have also improved compared with those from the third quarter.

According to the updated estimates, Canada is set to be the best-performing country among this group, growing by 2.5% in 2010, followed by France, up by 2%.

Japan, which has suffered particularly heavily in the financial crisis, is projected to witness slides of 10.5% and 1.7% this year and next respectively, better totals than were envisaged in September.

By medium, TV is due to take the biggest share of European adspend in 2010, at just under 30%, a percentage that has remained largely stable over the last decade despite the rise of the internet.

Print will receive 27.9% of advertiser budgets next year, with magazines dropping to a new low of 11.9%, while the web will be responsible for 19% of ad sales, up from 0.1% in 1998.

The overall change in outlook in Europe is in line with the improving global sentiment in Warc's Consensus Forecast, published earlier this month, which draws on a range of analyst and industry predictions for 2010.

Data sourced from Warc