Europe to Avoid Worst of Advertising Slump

12 January 2009

LONDON: Several key European markets are forecast to weather the advertising recession better than either the US or Japan, according to the latest European Advertising & Media Forecast, published by WARC.

Spending levels appear most stable in the Eurozone-12, with zero growth forecast for 2009, following on from expected negligible growth in the region in 2008 at current prices.

However, in real terms (accounting for inflation), the scenario is worse on a country level. Spending is set to drop by 7% in Spain, following a predicted slump of just under 12% in 2008, and by 2.4% in France.

UK advertising revenues are also due to drop by 6.5% year-on-year for 2009 as a whole in real terms.

Adspend will also post a decline of 1% in the US at current prices, and will be down by 2.5% in real terms, following an estimated reverse of 4.6% over the course of 2008.

Japan, suffering from severely declining exports, is set for a highly challenging twelve months, with adspend due to contract by 2.3% at current prices, or around 3% in real terms.

In terms of media, online will continue its upward trajectory across all markets, albeit at slower levels than previously forecast.

Growth will be highest in the Eurozone-12, at 20% year-on-year at current prices, while the medium will expand around 15% in the US and Japan, compared with just 9% in the UK.

Newspapers will be hit hardest by contracting media budgets. Adspend will slip by 7% in 2009 in the US, after an anticipated 10.7% fall this year (9% and 14% in real terms); in the UK, revenues will fall by 10%.

Television appears to be in a comparatively robust position, with spending set to decline by 2% to 3% across the Eurozone, Japan and the US this year at current prices.

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Data sourced from European Advertising & Media Forecast