Consumer spending to rise in China

13 October 2009

BEIJING: Consumer spending in China is set to record a substantial improvement over the next five years, boosted in particular by increasing levels of disposable income among residents of the country's major cities, a new study by McKinsey predicts.

According to the company's analysis, total consumer expenditure in the world's most populous nation will reach 11.7 trillion yuan ($1.7tn; €1.2tn; £1.1tn) by 2015.

Within this, the 25 biggest cities will record an uptick in outlay of some 50%, with overall consumption and the economy as a whole registering compound annual growth rates of 10% in this period.

Per capita spending in urban areas of the rapidly-developing market will also increase from 10,000 yuan in 2008 to 16,000 yuan mid-way through the next decade, the consultancy forecasts.

Based on its assessment of 606 cities in China, McKinsey further reported that Beijing, Yantai and Weihai will be among the best performers, with annual growth topping 14% by 2015.

In contrast, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, which are more reliant on exports, will see their CAGR slow to around 6.5% at points during the same timeframe.

Another recent survey of 15,000 people across 58 cities conducted by McKinsey found that consumer confidence has fallen compared with last year, especially among poorer participants living in regions dependent on exports.

Data sourced from China Daily; additional content by Warc staff