LONDON/WASHINGTON: Global advertising spend will rise by around 4% this year and next, but the challenging fiscal climate is still weighing on the industry, according to Warc's latest International Ad Forecast.
Based on figures covering 12 major markets – which can be downloaded by Warc subscribers here – the study predicted ad revenues should expand by 4.3% worldwide in 2012 and 4% in 2013 at current prices.
However, this year's estimate had been cut by 0.5 percentage points from the last International Ad Forecast, published in June, while expectations for next year were trimmed by 1.5 percentage points.
At constant prices, taking inflation into account, the pace of acceleration for 2012 also moderates to 1.8%, a total standing at 1.6% when discussing 2013.
Suzy Young, Warc's data editor, said: "The global ad market has been boosted this year by quadrennial events; namely, the Olympics, the US presidential election and, to a lesser extent, Euro 2012.
"Next year will suggest by comparison, with advertisers having fewer incentives to spend when the underlying mood is generally one of caution."
The US, the world's biggest ad market, is set to grow by 4.1% at current prices in 2012, reaching a value of $153bn, still below the peak of $168bn seen prior to the downturn.
Looking further ahead, the American ad industry is anticipated to expand by 2.5% in 2013, a slowdown primarily linked to the absence of the kinds of major events which defined 2012.
Elsewhere, Japan will largely flatline on a value of ¥3.8tr ($46.2bn) in 2012, whereas China is on course to deliver a 13% lift in 2012 to RMB224bn ($35bn) and a projected 12.5% uptick in 2013.
By media channel, the internet is expected to enjoy annual growth of around 14% during the forecast period, while cinema, TV, and out of home all benefit from consistent gains topping 3% per year.
In contrast, conditions will remain difficult for print, as newspapers and magazines continue to witness declining advertising sales at the global level.
Data sourced from Warc