Balance of Power Set to Shift in Global Media Markets

19 June 2008

NEW YORK: The economic slowdown in the US will shift the balance of media power to Europe, the Middle East and Africa over the next five years, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers' latest Global Entertainment and Media Outlook 2008-2012.

The report also expects China to overtake the US this year as the world's biggest broadband market, with more than 80 million households on super-fast connections.

PwC's study, which examines 15 media markets across the world, estimates they were worth $1.6 trillion (€1.03tr; £820bn) in 2007 and by 2012 expects them to be worth $2.2tr.

The EMEA region is likely to see its media market grow 6.8% a year from $570bn in 2007 to $792bn in 2012, while the US will grow by 4.8% a year from $601bn to $759bn. Asia-Pacific will increase 8.8% per year from $333bn to $508bn, with Latin America expanding from $51bn to $85bn.

Super-fast web access via fixed lines or mobile phones is expected to transform  the media and entertainment market. PwC estimates broadband will be worth $341bn globally by 2012, or 12.1% growth.

The number of broadband households across the globe is likely to double from 310m in 2007 to 661.1m within four years. Growth will be strongest in the Arab world, says PwC, where the market will rival that of France by 2012.

The mobile internet will expand at 18.9% by 2012 to $117.5bn, while spending on "wired" internet access will increase by 9.3% to $223.5bn.

Global online advertising is expected to rise from $49.5bn last year to $120.4bn in 2012. But growth is slowing, from 33.2% in 2007 down to 19.5% over the next five years.

Online ads will remain the fastest expanding part of entertainment and media, but the fastest portion of online advertising will be on mobile phones, expected to rise 44% to $16.4bn. So-called "wired" online advertising will grow 17.3% annually to $104bn by 2012.

Despite the strength of online, PwC predicts TV advertising will rise from $162bn to $215bn by 2012. Growth then is expected to be 7.5%, helped by the London Olympics.

In some of the most advanced markets, such as Britain, online advertising is expected to overtake TV, but globally TV will remain the largest single ad market.

By 2012, newspaper print ads will be worth $123bn, just $3bn ahead of online advertising. Circulation and advertising is expected to rise from $186bn last year to $208bn.

Newspaper circulation revenues are expected to  drop in the US and in many European countries, including the UK, but will rise in areas such as China and India.

Data sourced from; additional content by WARC staff