Advertising outlook improves

05 May 2011

LONDON/WASHINGTON: Prospects for global advertising expenditure in 2011 have improved when compared with late last year, according to Warc's latest Consensus Forecast.

Figures collated by Warc peg the current consensus at a 5.1% increase in adspend this year. The survey is based on a weighted average of estimates from agencies, media monitoring companies, trade bodies and in-house data.

Warc's last Consensus Forecast, published in November 2010, predicted a 4.5% expansion for 2011.

The predicted increase comes in spite of widespread civil unrest in the Middle East and the impact of the devastating Japanese earthquake - both factors that could slow global economic and adspend growth.

According to the Warc data, India should lead the way among the 13 major markets analysed in 2011, experiencing a 17.5% increase, followed by Russia on 16.2%, China with 13.3% and Brazil's 10.8%.

The outperformance of these countries - collectively known as the BRICs - is so pronounced that they are expected to dominate the top four spots in growth terms over all seven forecast media in 2011.

Australia and Canada are due to register a strong performance in the same timeframe, delivering successive surges in excess of 5%.

The US and Western Europe are projected to see ad sales rise by between 2.5% and 3.5% in 2011, with the London Olympics and Euro 2012 football tournament providing an extra boost the following year.

Regarding individual media, online advertising is predicted to grow by around 13% throughout the forecast period.

Television will be up by 5.7% in 2011 and 7.2% in 2012, as outdoor enjoys jumps of 6.2% and 6.8% in these two years respectively.

Looking to 2012, the estimate at present is for a 6.2% lift worldwide, still below the long-term trend, given the ad sector logged average annual growth of 6.8% between 1981 and 2009.

Suzy Young, data editor at Warc, said: "Despite recent jolts to the world economy the recovery in the global ad market remains concrete."

She added: "The latest Consensus Forecast shows impressive levels of growth, particularly across the BRICs. It is encouraging to note that many sources now point to a strengthening ad market."

For more information about the Warc Consensus Forecast, click here.

Data sourced from Warc