Adspend set to rise in most major markets

05 July 2010

LONDON: Most of the biggest advertising markets in the world will return to growth this year, with TV and the web set to be the main beneficiaries of this trend.

According to the Warc International Ad Forecast – which, can be accessed, including PowerPoint charts, here – trading conditions are likely to get better both this year and next.

Estimates from the Forecast suggest adspend across the countries assessed, which include Brazil, China, Germany, India, Japan, the UK and US, will rise by 4.5% at current prices to $316.9bn in 2010.

However, this figure remains below the level of $327bn recorded in 2006, indicating the extent of the damage done by the economic downturn.

India will post the most substantial improvement in 2010, generating an increase of 15.6% on an annual basis, while demand in Brazil and Russia should climb by 14.5%.

In China, it is anticipated that the outlay among brand owners will soar by 13.5% this year and accelerate at an even more rapid pace next year.

Elsewhere, Germany, Italy, France and Canada and the US are all predicted to see improvements in 2010 and 2011, when total expenditure is pegged at $330bn.

The internet will be the fastest-growing medium in 2010, up by 15.1% over the 12 featured markets this year.

The UK currently has the highest proportion of online spend, with the web expected to take 29% of all revenues in 2011.

As such, the net will be a primary driver of growth in the UK, where adspend is projected to jump by 4.5% in 2010 and 2.9% in 2011 in local currency.

The UK figures exclude direct mail, meaning the 2010 growth rate is greater than that outlined in the recent AA/Warc Expenditure Report, which included data for this channel.

Across all the countries analysed, television advertising sales will rise by 6.2% this year and 4.4% next year to $125.4bn, essentially the same amount as was registered in 2008.

The BRICs will be the main contributors to this trend, as marketers exploit the unparalleled reach offered by this medium.

Less favourably, further contractions are foreseen for both magazines and newspaper spending in 2010 and 2011.

But cinema, radio and outdoor are due to find the climate more favourable, registering single-digit increases this year and next.

Data sourced from Warc; additional content by Warc staff