Adspend Recovery in H2, Forecasts Nielsen

07 June 2002

The world advertising economy will rally in the second half of 2002, predicts Nielsen Media Research (International) in a recently released study.

According to the researcher, fourteen of the globe’s major advertising markets witnessed revenue falls of 5% during 2001. But the overall decline in developed countries distracted attention from the robust growth enjoyed by emerging markets during 2001, the report says.

This year, Nielsen confidently projects that spend in the world’s developed countries will increase slightly in the second half, offsetting a first-half decline to produce essentially zero growth for the year.

But while the US, Australia, Canada, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK saw adspend decline by a collective 7% in 2001, emerging markets such as China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa and Thailand reversed the trend, returning a collective growth of around 15%.

Says Ian Garland, Nielsen’s managing director of product marketing and development: “What we’re seeing is what I like to call the 'yin and yang' effect. There are really two distinct worlds – developed and emerging – that shape the global advertising economy. Although the United States is by far the world’s largest ad market, what happens here can’t always be taken as a proxy for global advertising on the whole.”

“We found that ad spending in the emerging markets was surprisingly buoyant,” Graham continued, “led by a sizeable increase in China. These markets shrugged off the effect of September 11, which significantly dampened ad spending in the West, and actually grew at their most robust rate in the final quarter of last year.”

Growth in China’s ad market has been impressive, propelling the world’s most populous nation from tenth place in the global ad league in 2000 to a near-tie for third place in 2002 with the UK and Germany, lagging only Japan and the US.

Data sourced from: Daily Research News Online; additional content by WARC staff