LONDON: Global advertising expenditure is forecast to grow by 2.2% in 2013 and by 4.4% in 2014 according to Warc's latest International Ad Forecast.
The figures are based on data for 12 leading markets – Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, the UK and the US – and cover the main media of television, newspapers, magazines, internet (including mobile), outdoor, radio and cinema.
Factoring in expected inflation levels, however, means that real global adspend will be flat this year, with just 0.1% growth, and will increase only 1.7% in 2014.
The latest forecasts
also represent downgrades on the previous April report, when 2013 growth was put at 3.0% and 2014 growth at 5.4% and reflect lowered expectations for key eurozone markets, as well as the US and China.
Within Europe, Italy was the worst affected, as it was downgraded ten percentage points and adspend there is now predicted to shrink 12.9% in 2013. More modest downgrades for France and Germany meant their markets were expected to decline by 3.2% and 0.8% respectively.
The biggest market, the US, was revised down by 0.7 percentage points to 1.5% growth, leaving it flat in real terms. Only Japan and the UK saw upward revisions, with the former now projected to grow 1.5% and the latter 3.6%.
The biggest increases in adspend, however, are anticipated in the BRIC countries, with Russia leading the way on 11.5%, followed by China on 8.6%. Brazil and India are both projected to rise 6.5%, but after inflation India's performance equates to a 3.2% decline, while Brazil's is a slight 0.3% uplift.
"Many advertisers remain reluctant to commit marketing spend," said Suzy Young, Data and Journals Director at Warc, "but we expect these concerns to ease through the end of 2013 and into next year."
Looking to 2014, all markets bar France were expected to show growth at current prices, with Russia again rising fastest at 11%. Outside the BRIC countries the UK will be the strongest performer on 5.4%.
Data sourced from Warc