GroupM cuts adspend forecasts

16 August 2013
NEW YORK: Global advertising expenditure will grow more slowly than expected in 2013, with the continuing economic problems in the eurozone acting as a brake, according to new data from GroupM.

The global media investment management operation issued revised forecasts in its publication This Year, Next Year. It now expects global adspend to reach a total of $507bn in 2013, a 3.4% increase rather than the 4.5% previously anticipated, before growing more strongly in 2014, rising 5.1% to $533bn.

"The eurozone periphery, specifically Italy, Spain, Portugal, Greece and Ireland, is once again the main reason for the decline," said Adam Smith, GroupM Futures Director. "Stabilization is elusive. We now expect this group to record an 11% fall in measured advertising in 2013."

He added that the eurozone periphery's share of global advertising investment had more than halved during the course of the economic crisis, from 7% to 3%.

Western Europe in total is now predicted to see a 2.4% fall in adspend during 2013 to $97bn, with the decline halted the following year when a 1.8% increase is forecast.

Growth in the US was expected to be slight, at just 1.8% for 2013 to reach $156bn, although this was expected to pick up a little in 2014, with a 2.9% rise taking the total to $161bn.

"We estimate marginal growth in advertising spending in 2014 on a comparable component basis," said Rino Scanzoni, GroupM's Chief Investment Officer for North America. "However the Sochi Winter Olympic games will add an additional 50 basis points to the growth rate with funding coming primarily from existing budgets."

The fastest-growing regions in 2013 are expected to be Latin America (+8.6%), Asia Pacific (+7.2%) and Central & Eastern Europe (+7.2%).

The report identified China and Russia as advertising hotspots. "Western advertisers' share of investment in both countries remains as substantial as ever, and is even rising, according to standard industry monitoring sources," said Smith.

The continued growth of digital was also noted, with the report suggesting that investment in digital media would account for 19% of measured ad spending globally this year, a total of $95 billion, and 20% in 2014.

GroupM's revisions echo those of Warc's April International Ad Forecast, which reduced 2013 growth forecasts from 4.0% to 3.0%, while anticipating a stronger performance in 2014 with 5.4% growth.

Data sourced from GroupM; additional content by Warc staff
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