LONDON/WASHINGTON: Global advertising spend is forecast to rise by 3% in 2013, with Brazil, Russia, India and China growing at a significantly faster rate, according to Warc's latest International Ad Forecast
While the rate of growth will slow this year after receiving a short-term stimulus from the Olympic Games and US presidential election in 2012, it should reach 5.4% at current prices in 2014 as the economic outlook improves.
When factoring in inflation, forecast growth drops to 0.6% this year and 2.4% next year.
The International Ad Forecast is based on 12 major markets, including Brazil, China, France, Germany, India, Italy, Japan, Russia, UK and US. It covers television, newspapers, magazines, internet (including mobile), outdoor, radio and cinema.
Russia is predicted to record the biggest increase in adspend, up by 12.4% at current prices, in 2013, followed by Brazil on 9.5%, China on 9.0% and India on 7.9%.
Europe presents a mixed picture, with 3.1% growth in the UK and 0.9% growth in Germany being offset by declines of -0.7% in France and -2.9% in Italy.
North America sits just below the average, with adspend predicted to grow by 2.2% in the US and 2.7% in Canada.
In Asia Pacific outside China, Australia is expected to perform best, registering an uplift of 2.2%, while Japan, which has experienced little growth in recent years, also enjoys a 1.3% expansion.
"With few major events this year, global advertising spend growth was always expected to be slower than for 2012," commented Suzy Young, Data and Journals director at Warc.
"The eurozone debt crisis continues to depress growth both among member countries and abroad. To offset this, global adspend will be reliant on a solid performance from the US and strong rises from emerging markets."
The US alone will account for 40.6% of global adspend in 2013, followed by China, on 15.2%. Japan (9.9%), Germany (5.9%) and the UK (5.9%) make up the top five on this measure.
Online is likely to be an increasingly important channel in all markets, and in China could be on a par with TV in terms of market share by the end of the forecast period.
Data sourced from Warc