Rethinking data analysis – part two: some alternatives to frequentist approaches1
Ray KentUniversity of Stirling
BAYESIAN STATISTICS
The goal of any science is to make predictions, but these can be of various kinds. A forecast, which is usually short term, is a prediction of events in a system that is not amenable to manipulation or intervention like a weather forecast. A prediction might be of the outcome, or likely outcome, of a deliberate act or intervention, like the effect on sales of a manufacturer's decision to raise prices. The prediction might be hypothetical – for example, of the...