Cracking the crystal ball. An empirical evaluation of approaches to forecasting aggregate and individual switching behaviour in developing cellular phone markets

Craig Kolb and Andrea Rademeyer

Approaches were investigated for forecasting in the developing South African cellular phone market at the aggregate level (market share), and individual level of switching behaviour.

Cracking the Crystal Ball

An Empirical Evaluation of Approaches to Forecasting Aggregate and Individual Switching Behaviour in Developing Cellular Phone Markets

Craig KolbAsk Afrika, South Africa.

Andrea RademeyerAsk Afrika, South Africa.

INTRODUCTION AND BUSINESS CONTEXT

In the middle of the last decade Africa only possessed a few thousand cellular phones. Since then, Africa has experienced explosive growth, it being estimated that approximately 50 million cell phones were on the continent by the end of 2003. This is estimated to reach 100 million at the end of 2005, making Africa's cellular market the fastest growing in the world (Maud,...

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