The use of modelling for public opinion polls

Oscar Carrani

This dissertation aims to propose a methodological approach to apply modelling to public opinion polls in order to favour the process which leads from description to explanation and further to prediction.

The Use of Modelling For Public Opinion Polls

Oscar Carrari Research International Argentina.

INTRODUCTION

Even though my professional experience is predominantly market research, I believe that public opinion polls should gradually incorporate data collection techniques and analyses which would stimulate the process involving the passage from description to short and middle term predictions. It is undoubtedly true that, at least in Latin America, political polls tend to fail to accurately predict a result one or two weeks previous to the election itself. Normally, these type of studies are 'photographs' of the state of preference at the moment the poll...

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